Another GOP Win in a Solid Blue District

In the past few weeks and months, you’ve likely heard it said that a major red wave is coming this November. And just about everywhere, we are already seeing evidence of that likelihood.

Nassau County, New York, is just one of those areas.

Last week, a special runoff election for Nassau’s 20th district gave the seat of state Assemblyman to Republican Eric “Ari” Brown rather than his opponent Democrat David Lobl. Now in some districts, this might not be big news. I mean, in my rural community in Indiana, a conservative winning isn’t really big news.

However, Nassau County, New York, is a far cry from the cornfields where I grew up. Instead, here, Newsday reports that Democrats outnumber Republicans 42,000 to 35,000. The area also has a large Jewish population.

But Brown still won… and by some 2,254 votes.

To be sure, Brown is not completely in the clear, at least not if he wants to continue holding onto that seat past November.

As I said, last week’s election was a “special” one, meaning that the former seat holder left before their term was up, and someone else was needed to take over for the remainder of that time. Republican Melissa “Missy” Miller was the last to hold that seat but left recently to serve as Hempstead’s Town Board councilwoman. With nearly half a year until the end of her official term, which is up in November, Brown has been elected to take her place.

But come November, if he wants to keep his job, he will have to run for a full term of his own.

And as of right now, it looks as though that is more than possible to achieve.

Brown ran his campaign against Lobl on what most of us would call “common sense” issues. You know, things like lower gas taxes during a time when gas prices themselves are already through the roof and ending cashless bail reforms that have left the communities of places like Long Island, New York, with higher crime rates than ever before.

In fact, it is this last bit that likely got his predecessor her seat at the table in a usually deep-blue district.

If you didn’t know, Democrats in bigger cities have been pushing new bail rules and laws for a while, with most of them no longer requiring bail for a number of crimes, including violent ones. But as you may have either experienced for yourself or would have guessed, these reforms aren’t doing the communities any good.

Instead of holding criminals until they can either bail themselves out or someone else does, they are immediately turned back out onto the streets, sometimes before the paperwork for their crimes has even reached a prosecutor’s desk. The result has obviously been a massive uptick in crimes of all sorts.

And the people of New York have noticed.

Even beginning last year, the people of Nassau and Suffolk counties began looking to a party other than that of the Democrats to lead them. Along with Miller, Brown’s Republican predecessor, several other GOP members were elected last year to usually Democratically held seats. These include Suffolk County’s district attorney, Nassau’s county executive and comptroller, and even a New York state senator seat.

And in most of those cases, the Democratic candidates ran in support of ideas like cashless bail reform laws, whereas the Republicans ran against them. For those like Miller, they were the first Republicans to win in the district in decades.

Now, it seems that trend is continuing. And it’s even gaining steam.

As New York’s leading Republican candidate for governor Lee Zeldin predicts, it won’t just be a wave of red coming in November but a “tsunami.”

On Thursday, the day of Brown’s winning election, he tweeted, “Incredible win tonight in Nassau County as Ari Brown becomes New York’s next State Assemblyman after crushing today’s Special Election. A massive Red Tsunami is inbound in 2022!”

And, according to the results of similar elections happening all over the country, I’d say he’s dead on.